How it calculates
Proceeds are price × (1 − commission). The commission is 15% in the App Store Small Business Program and 30% otherwise, falling to 15% for subscribers after a year of paid service. For a subscription, the goal sets how many paying subscribers you need to hold; monthly churn sets how many you must replace each month; your download-to-paid conversion turns that into downloads.
It is deliberately simple. Outside the US, displayed prices include VAT or GST that Apple removes before its commission, so real proceeds there are lower. Trials, annual plans, refunds, and payout currency all move the real figure. Use it to sanity-check a plan, not to forecast a payout.
Where the inputs come from
Your real conversion rate is paying customers ÷ first-time downloads over the same fully reported period — both in App Store Connect. Churn comes from the subscription state and event reports. Manifest records both daily and shows the weekly review that puts them side by side.